What we do
Everyone requires accurate judgments: doctors need accurate judgments about the correct treatments for illnesses, policymakers need accurate judgments about projected policy outcomes and juries need accurate judgments about who is guilty or innocent, for example. And yet research shows that human judgment is often more inaccurate than many would hope or expect.
Fortunately, the science of human judgment also shows a number of empirically-supported ways to measure and improve accuracy across diverse domains, thereby improving our organizations, our decision-making and ultimately the outcomes of our endeavors. Alethic Innovations offers products and services to help organizations capitalize on these insights, with the name “Alethic” coming from the Greek word “alētheia” (ἀλήθεια), meaning “truth”.
Products & Services
Software
Alethic Innovations has developed and empirically-tested software to measure, predict and enhance the accuracy of judgments which inform decision-making.
Training
Alethic Innovations provides online, interactive training modules in content that science shows improves or correlates with accuracy.
Analytic Assessments
Alethic Innovations provides assessments, for topics ranging from projected policy outcomes to trend summaries, using evidence-based principles to maximize assessment accuracy.
Presentations
Alethic Innovations’ founder, Dr. John Wilcox, has presented to diverse audiences, ranging from officials in top-ranking governmental organizations to academic conferences to lecture theaters at Stanford University.
Scientific R&D
As a Stanford-trained scientist, organizations have recruited John Wilcox to develop or scientifically evaluate interventions to help their organizations, whether it be features of a website aiming to improve human judgment or a software platform for teams of reasoners.
General consulting
Alethic Innovations provides general consultation services to understand and address the needs of their clients, especially in improving judgment and decision-making.
Book: Human Judgment
John Wilcox literally wrote the book on human judgment, how accurate it is and how to improve it, drawing on diverse literatures across psychology, philosophy and even applied areas like law, medicine and geopolitical forecasting. It concludes with a set of practical recommendations to improve judgment and decision-making.
Inaccuracy is costly
Every year, thousands die because of inaccurate medical diagnoses, dozens of innocents are sent to jail because of inaccurate jury decisions and billions of dollars are lost because of inaccurate judgments which inform business decisions. We aim to improve accuracy so that costs like these are not your costs.
Who we serve
The founder of Alethic Innovations, Dr. John Wilcox, has worked with various organizations, ranging from governmental bodies to research laboratories to non-profit startups.
He has provided services for various government-affiliated organizations, having worked on software development projects funded by the Hunt Lab for Intelligence Research and the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity.
He has also presented to high-ranking governmental groups, including groups in the United States and New Zealand governments.
Additionally, he has provided helpful services and resources for non-profit organizations, such as fp21, the Forecasting Research Institute and Goodly Labs.
Government sector
Medical sector
Private and other organizations